STORY: :: Trade of goods between the U.S. and China could fall by up to 80%, the World Trade Organization warns
:: April 10, 2025
:: Geneva, Switzerland
:: Numzijo-Iala, WTO Director General
“The escalating trade tensions between the United States and China pose a significant risk of a sharp contraction in their bilateral trade. A preliminary projection suggests that merchandise trade between these two economies could decrease by as much as 80 percent. Further escalation becomes tantamount to a shortening of bilateral trade between the two countries, a decoupling. The negative macroeconomic effects will not be confined to the U.S. and China alone, but will extend to other countries, especially the least developed nations. Of particular concern is the potential fragmentation of global trade along geopolitical lines. A division of the global economy into two blocks could lead to long-term reduction in global real GDP by nearly 7 percent.”
WTO’s preliminary estimate was issued on Wednesday (April 9) around the time U.S. President Donald Trump further raised tariffs on imports from China but paused some others for 90 days.
China’s mission to the World Trade Organisation said on Friday (April 11) it had filed an additional complaint to the trade body over U.S. tariffs.
