Vice President Kamala Harris selected Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate, partly because of his potential to connect with Midwestern and the Rust Belt voters. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are arguably the three most important states in the 2024 presidential election. Harris undoubtedly thought Walz’s straight-talking demeanor and “normal guy” resume—former National Guardsman, high school teacher, and football coach—would help her sway voters in those key states. He joins other recent vice-presidential nominees, including Joe Biden, Paul Ryan, and J.D. Vance, whose perceived ability to reach swing state voters bolstered their cause.
What fewer voters know about Walz is that in May 2023, he signed legislation that could help render swing-state appeal obsolete. That’s when Minnesota became the 17th jurisdiction to join the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, a plan that would effectively replace the Electoral College with a national popular vote.
A bill to join the Compact had languished in the statehouse in Saint Paul since 2006, but Walz was able to sign it after Democrats took control of both chambers and held on to the governorship in 2022. The Compact was a natural fit for a myriad of measures designed to enhance democracy and make voting easier in this civic-minded state, long noted by political scientists for its high rates of voting and political participation. The measures Walz signed included automatic voter registration for those turning 18, permanent mail-in voting lists so citizens don’t have to get a ballot every few years, and restoring voting rights to felons. Walz was a supporter of the national compact before signing it.
Under the Compact, states that join would award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote rather than the candidate who wins the most votes in their state. For example, if Donald Trump gets the most votes in Montana (assuming it joined the compact) and Kamala Harris wins the national popular vote, the Treasure State, as it is known, would award its three electoral votes to the Democratic nominee. The Compact does not take effect until states totaling most electoral votes (270 as of 2024) have joined. Once that happens, it ensures the candidate who wins the national popular vote wins the Electoral College.
Jurisdictions totaling 209 electoral votes have signed up. That’s 77.4 percent of the way to 270. And given the exceedingly narrow focus of presidential campaigns on a tiny fraction of the country, the change can’t come soon enough.
Every four years, Americans endure an absurd method of selecting our president that is so counterintuitive and unappealing that no other country follows our model. Rather than electing our chief executive by popular vote—the way we choose virtually every other federal, state, and local elected official in the country—the Electoral College chooses our president. Americans still vote for their preferred candidate on the ballot, but the candidate with the most votes does not necessarily become president. The litany of problems caused by the Electoral College are obvious.
Five times, the candidate who won the popular vote did not win the Electoral College. Most recently, in 2016, Trump beat Hillary Clinton even though she received nearly 2.9 million more votes. In 2020, Americans narrowly avoided an even more undemocratic outcome. Joe Biden resoundingly defeated Trump by over 7 million votes nationwide but only squeaked by in the Electoral College due to 115,012 votes across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Georgia.
Rather than give every voter equal weight, the Electoral College distorts the voting power of Americans based on where they live. The importance of votes in swing states like Wisconsin, Nevada, or Georgia is wildly enhanced, while the value of votes in safe states like Oklahoma or Vermont is artificially diminished. This is evident from how candidates spend their time. A map of campaign stops by Biden and Trump between August 28, 2020, and Election Day shows that 96 percent of the campaign visits the two made were in just 12 states.
No wonder seven swing states dominate the discourse: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina. The Trump and Harris campaigns will court these voters like they’re the prettiest girl at the dance. Their campaigns will not waste resources in safe states like Idaho or Maryland.
Of course, voters in swing states are no more intelligent, decent, or deserving of influence than voters in safe states. The distortion is simply the unfair, arbitrary consequence of a poorly designed system and proof that the Electoral College—which also puts the thumb on the scale for low-population states, thanks to the U.S. Senate—has outlived its usefulness. Voters in safe states seem to understand that their presidential vote matters little. On average, safe states have lower voter turnout than swing states.
Despite its flaws, the Electoral College has supporters, who are almost always Republicans. Since a Republican presidential candidate has only won the national popular vote once in the past 32 years (George W. Bush in 2004), the GOP has a strong incentive to keep the Electoral College. That explains the oft-repeated, feeble arguments that the status quo prevents small states from being ignored. Or that a system that weighs votes equally would somehow “silence” rural voters. Or that the Electoral College stops “New York and California from imposing their will on the rest of the country.” I’ve addressed most of those claims before. And the Electoral College’s defenders can never explain why, if it’s such a great system, no other state or country has copied it.
Most Americans understand that the Electoral College is fundamentally flawed. That’s why a majority have supported the national popular vote for decades, and 65 percent are supportive today. “Whoever gets the most votes wins” is as fair as it gets. So how, despite Republicans’ self-interested obstinance, can the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact cross the finish line?
When Minnesota joined the Compact under Tim Walz’s leadership, it broke a four-year drought. Five states joined the Compact in 2018 and 2019, but none did until Minnesota in 2023. Perhaps enthusiasm dimmed after Biden won the popular vote and the Electoral College in 2020. But with Minnesota and, more recently, Maine bringing the Compact within just 61 electoral votes of success, there is a path to 270 within the next four years.
The Compact has passed through both house committees in Michigan. If it is signed into law, it will add another 15 electoral votes to the Compact’s ranks. Compact legislation has also made progress in Virginia and Nevada, which would add another 29 electoral votes and leave just 27 to go. At that point, some combination of three purple states like Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Arizona would be enough to surpass 270.
Either electoral outcome this autumn could give the Compact the final boost it needs. If Trump wins, he will most likely do it while losing the popular vote, which would motivate even more Americans to push for the Compact. If Harris wins, Walz could become a key advocate for the Compact, speaking to governors and legislators in states that have yet to join.
Regardless of how the 2024 election goes, the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact offers hope that in the not-too-distant future, vice presidential nominees may be chosen based on their qualifications rather than their swing-state appeal. And Americans may finally have a system in which the candidate who wins the most votes always wins the presidency.
