One person not worried about the American election is Mr. Putin. Unlike the equivocal West, Mr. Putin is playing seriously. He has put his country and his economy on a war footing, dedicating at least a third of the state budget to the military and enticing tens of thousands of Russians to join his war machine with generous salaries and payouts. He has expanded the theater into NATO’s territory, financing pro-Russian parties and politicians, spreading misinformation and directly targeting Western individuals involved in sending weapons to Ukraine. When confronted, Russia simply shrugs off the evidence.
This setup — an adversary with the will and resources to fight to the end and allies that deliver just enough aid to stop the front from collapsing tomorrow — leaves Ukraine in a bleak place. At a certain point Ukrainian resolve, already tested to the limit, will wear thin and a peace deal with Mr. Putin, on whatever terms, will become preferable to dying. This moment may come sooner if Donald Trump wins the American presidential election and ends the war “in 24 hours,” as he has promised, by forcing Ukraine to negotiate on Mr. Putin’s terms. Or it will come later if the Democrats keep the White House and continue their halfway-house strategy.
Mr. Putin is already planning for victory. His latest so-called peace proposal — in which Russia keeps occupied territory and Ukraine is banned from joining NATO — was dismissed as propaganda by many Western leaders. But it is, in fact, the most realistic scenario for how this war will pan out. Voices ranging from Kremlin supporters to Nobel laureates and even the pope are advocating a “peace” that would give Mr. Putin what he wants. Ukraine has rejected the proposal, of course. But Russia, after pounding the country’s infrastructure, people and army, will almost certainly make it again. Eventually, anything that stops the bombs will be viewed as an improvement.
Every war has winners and losers. If Mr. Putin wins this war, Ukraine and its allies, by definition, will have lost it. But defeat won’t be distributed equally. A peace deal on Mr. Putin’s terms will be bad for Ukraine. It will lose nearly 20 percent of its territory and around five million people. But that loss will be mitigated by the remarkable thwarting of Mr. Putin’s original plan to take over Kyiv and destroy Ukraine as a nation. War will stop. There will be dead to mourn, wounded to heal and a country to rebuild. Ukraine’s reputation on the global stage will be higher than ever and membership of the European Union will be in sight.
The West, on the other hand, will be hard-pressed to find any positives. The failure of its leaders to prevent war in Europe, or to successfully punish the aggressor, will signal to others that borders are no longer inviolable. Frozen conflicts will unfreeze and old grievances will resurface, with institutions like the United Nations simply recording the damage. Russia, backed by other openly anti-West states like Iran and North Korea, will be further emboldened. The next conflict may well occur on NATO soil. If nuclear sabre-rattling proved enough to hold NATO in check in Ukraine, why wouldn’t it work were Mr. Putin to invade a member of the alliance, such as Estonia? The European continent will no longer be safe.
