Biden doesn’t need guilty verdicts to win
Most national polls show Donald Trump leading Joe Biden. But when pollsters ask whom would voters prefer if Trump was convicted of a felony, Biden always comes out on top.
This understandably makes Democrats eager for Trump’s many trials to get underway, and deeply anxious when Trump’s delay tactics succeed.
But the delays are an implicit reminder that nothing is certain about the outcome of the Trump trials, and any strategy to defeat Trump should not be premised on help from the judiciary.
For example, check out what’s leading the Washington Monthly website:
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Whether or not you agree with Zirin’s and Graber’s conclusions, they both raise the possibilities of Trump winning more delays, winning immunity, or even winning not guilty verdicts.
This would be a significant political problem if the polls today are certain to dictate the outcome in November and the only way Trump can lose is if he’s officially a felon.
But Biden is in more control of his destiny than that.
Nearly a year ago I argued that Biden was likely to win reelection so long as the economy continued to improve and inflation continued to decline, because incumbents are almost always reelected except during economic calamity or (as I noted in a separate column) during unpopular wars involving American casualties.
Plus, the 2022 midterms provided evidence that voter concerns about abortion access and Trump’s election denialism helped Democrats overcome voter ire over steep inflation.
Biden’s State of the Union address hit all three hard–the economy, abortion, and democracy. However, Biden’s first campaign ad, released over the weekend, focused on the economy and abortion, but did not mention the trials or January 6.
Yes, court rulings favorable to Trump may complicate a focus on democracy. But if history is any guide, the economy will once again be the biggest driver of swing voter behavior. And any setbacks with the Trump trials will have no bearing on that.
And Biden can easily stress that abortion rights are on the ballot, no matter what happens with the trials.
Sure, the best thing for Biden would be for Trump to suffer a guilty verdict … and the worst thing would be for Trump to win not guilty verdicts.
But because they can’t control what judges and juries will do, Biden and his allies should focus on what they can control. And they are.
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Best,
Bill
