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Pity JD Vance. Having advised against Donald Trump’s Iran war, he was sent to Islamabad to fix it. En route to that doomed cause, the US vice-president stopped off in Hungary to endorse another — Viktor Orbán’s re-election campaign. The Iran talks failed and Orbán lost in a landslide. By the end of that tour from hell, Vance’s approval rating was the lowest ever for a vice-president at this point in a term.
The job was not designed to be fun. With the exception of the late Dick Cheney, who co-governed in George W Bush’s first term, it is usually powerless. Being Trump’s number two brings unique discomfort. Trump chose Vance for his pugilistic loyalty. But defending policies that often turn 180 degrees overnight — from vowing to destroy a civilisation, say, to announcing a new golden age — requires pure acrobatics. Even the versatile Henry Kissinger would be struggling. Vance is flailing.
He is thus no longer Trump’s obvious successor. The president now makes a habit of lightly teasing Vance at public events. Gentle can quickly turn to savage if Trump loses respect. While Vance was in Pakistan, Trump was living it up in Miami with his chief rival, Marco Rubio, the US secretary of state. Forget that America’s chief diplomat was absent from the most important bilateral talks of Trump’s presidency. The very moment Vance was announcing their collapse, Rubio was socialising with Trump at the ringside of an Ultimate Fighting Championship bout.
Trump loves UFC fights; the bloodier the better. Rubio has recently been getting the upper hand in his cage battle with Vance. That is a sharp reversal from how his term began. In Trump’s opening months, Rubio’s slumped body language spoke volumes. The firebrand neoconservative with a taste for foreign adventures had been co-opted and tamed by Trump. Vance, on the other hand, visibly relished his role as chief explainer of America First. At a low point in Trump’s fortunes in 2023, Vance based his endorsement of him on the fact that he had avoided starting any wars during his first term. That was a bad call.
Trump’s second term has been one of the most warlike of any US presidency in living memory. In the first year he ordered strikes on seven countries — Iran, Venezuela, Yemen, Syria, Nigeria, Somalia and Iraq, as well as dozens of hits on boats in the Caribbean. Then in late February came “Operation Epic Fury”. Vance has been privately briefing the media that he argued against Trump’s big Iran gamble. Trump rewarded Vance by giving him the Iran portfolio.
That Iran and the US have not held such high-level talks since before Vance was born makes last week’s parlay with the Iranian delegation something of a milestone. That Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is almost certain to backfire means that Vance is likely to lead a second round of talks, and probably many more. It is conceivable at some point that a deal will be reached, which Vance could then credit to himself. But his leash is short. He stepped out of the room multiple times to call Trump during his 21-hour negotiations in Islamabad.
Even were Vance to regain his place in the Trumpian firmament, there is no such thing as a Vance base. His standing relies solely on Trump. This presents Vance with two steep disabilities. The first is that he lacks standalone political charisma. Steve Bannon, Trump’s former chief strategist, calls Vance “The Cooler” after a movie about a charmless casino employee who brings misfortune to those around him.
Others point out that Vance has only won one election on his own — his 2022 Ohio Senate race. Even then, he had a lot of help. He was dragged across the finishing line by huge spending from Peter Thiel, the Silicon Valley venture capitalist and Vance mentor. Without Trump’s endorsement, which was arranged by Thiel, Vance would not even have been the nominee.
Vance would also suffer from the same handicap as Kamala Harris had with Joe Biden in 2024 — his record would be tied to that of his boss. He would thus likely have to contend with a true Maga populist in the primaries. There are few signs that Trump has a plan, beyond war and domestic revenge, to halt his political slide. He has near-blanket criminal immunity from the Supreme Court and his family has gained more than a billion dollars since inauguration.
Which would leave Vance, and probably Rubio, with a poisoned chalice. History shows that people who get close to Trump pay a price. Trump’s number two is unlikely to buck that record.
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Source:
www.ft.com
