Some Republicans I know, even sane middle-of-the-road Republicans, tell me they are voting for Donald Trump. They have forgotten John F. Kennedy’s observation that sometimes “party loyalty demands too much.” Sure, they admit sub silentio, Trump is a vulgar, foul-mouthed, malevolent, corrupt, unfit, crazy grifter lacking in cognitive function, but they claim there are “guardrails” that will keep him on the right track.
The other evening, at the Council on Foreign Relations, someone who worked in the first Trump administration said that five people run the government, and they would be the “adults in the room.”
Really? Tell that to John Kelly, John Bolton, H.R. McMaster, Jim Mattis, Anthony Scaramucci, or Mark Esper—all of whom were given their walking papers. History teaches that any adult who crosses the Donald winds up on the cutting room floor. So, without internal guardrails in the Executive Branch, what of the “checks and balances” the country’s founders thought were important?
Let’s start with the legislative. The conventional wisdom is that Republicans will retake the Senate. Democrats control the chamber 51-49. Should Trump win, Vice President J.D. Vance will break any ties, lowering the threshold of control to 50 votes. Democrat Joe Manchin is retiring, and his West Virginia seat will go Republican. And polls show Republicans leading the Democratic incumbent handily in Montana. Republicans have a shot at pickups in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Maybe Democrats Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania—both part of the Class of ’06 will win fourth terms—but they may not. Senator Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin faces a brutal homophobic challenge in America’s Dairyland. And the open U.S. Senate seat in Michigan is very close as Representative Elissa Slotkin, a former CIA operative, battles former Representative Mike Rogers, a once normie ex-FBI agent who has gone full MAGA. Maybe in Texas, Representative Colin Allred of Baylor and the NFL can off Senator Ted Cruz of Princeton and Harvard Law School. If the Republicans take both chambers of Congress, history tells us that Congress will not be a check on a Trump White House; the White House will take a boot to the neck of the Legislative Branch.
This November, Democrats see a chance to retake the House, now held by a narrow Republican majority of 222 to 213, but this may be wishful thinking. They lost control of the chamber by hemorrhaging close, even winnable, seats in New York and California in 2022. They may not get them back this time. As for the rest, only 10 percent of House races are competitive. Three Blue Dog Democratic representatives are desperately struggling to hold on—Oregon’s Marie Glusenkamp Perez, Alaska’s Mary Patola, and Maine’s Jared Golden.
Voters could still break heavily for one party or the other in these swing races, handing a comfortable majority to either the Democrats or Republicans. Republicans could maintain control of the chamber by winning 12 of the 27 seats rated as toss-ups if they also secure the seats rated Likely or Lean Republican. They have incumbents in 15 of those toss-up seats. But if the House stays Republican and Trump wins, where is the check and balance on his authority?
As for the Supreme Court, supposedly the guardians of liberty, forget it, hang the flag upside-down, and stand in a corner. Three of the Trump-appointed justices joined three other GOP appointees to grant Trump immunity from criminal prosecution for all acts within the core responsibility of the president and a presumptive immunity for all other official acts. Paying lip service to the shibboleth that the president is not above the law, the Court, per Chief Justice John Roberts, held that if the president kills his mistress in the Oval Office, he might be prosecuted for a private act. But, if he orders the Navy SEALs to do it, he would be immune from criminal prosecution, and prosecutors could not question the motive—an astounding ruling.
We know that the Founders did not want a single man on horseback to rule. If things break for him, Trump will be the man in the golf cart.
The 78-year-old says he wants to “terminate the Constitution,” become a dictator for a day, round up his political enemies, including media figures he doesn’t like, and pardon the January 6 criminals. (Take him seriously and literally, warns Paul Glastris, the editor-in-chief of this magazine.) And where are the guard rails to stop him?
Though many Democrats were grumbling this summer that President Joe Biden would doom their chances to retake the House, his departure and the smooth transition to Kamala Harris stirred newfound optimism. But, for now, let us assume that the House stays narrowly Republican. So much depends on the outcome of the presidential election.
It is said to be a close election—the closest election in years. If Trump loses, he will deny its validity, undermining the entire process. He will sue, he will bloviate, and he will sic his minions on the Capitol. The federal government may succeed more in putting down any insurrection than it did four years ago since President Biden controls the National Guard, the military, and the law enforcement apparatus. However, there will be a corrosive effect on our democratic institutions. First, Trump and the MAGAs illegitimate the voters; then, they illegitimate the vote.
And if Trump wins, rest assured we will be an autocracy for decades to come.
