Pete Hegseth, Donald Trump’s nominee for secretary of defense, endured a four-hour confirmation hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday. He faced sharp questioning from Democrats, who pointed out Hegseth’s lack of significant management experience, his oft-stated (though suddenly repudiated) opposition to women in combat roles, his history of womanizing and alleged sexual assault, and documented accounts of heavy drinking, including on the job. He was nevertheless warmly embraced by committee Republicans, who had been threatened with primary challenges if they failed to do so. Barring further revelations, Hegseth seems likely to be confirmed.
It’s one thing to make it through the Senate, another to perform as Defense Secretary with those attributes. To get a sense of Hegseth’s future, I had a short chat with a source who has had a decades-long career in the U.S. military and the intelligence community, serving both in and out of government. The source requested anonymity to speak freely. The following is an edited version of our conversation:
Q: It looks like Pete Hegseth is going to get through the Senate. How’s he likely to do at the Pentagon?
A: Here’s the thing: the secretary of defense is a killer job. The pressure, the stress, and the workload are crushing. Take a person with a history of heavy drinking. Put him in one of the most physically and mentally demanding jobs in the world. What chance is there that he’s not going to go back to the bottle?
Q: Even if he does, will we even know? Presidents have acted weirdly in the past and it didn’t become public until after they left office?
A: It’s not like the White House, where there is a limited and tight group around the president. It’s not as controlled an environment. The secretary of defense doesn’t work from home. The job is an away game. There are 5000 people who work at the Pentagon. People are constantly in and out of your office. You’re also on the road a lot, meeting people all day. The job can’t be stage-managed. It just comes at you constantly. Your day begins at 7:30 AM. You go home at 6:00 PM with a huge pile of homework that’ll take you three hours to get through. And it’s weekends. It’s 24/7. You’re never finished.
It’s just a question of time before the staff start covering up for him. Time and attendance will be the tell. First, they’ll stop scheduling meetings at 7:30 AM. Then they’ll start canceled meetings. Then he’ll start showing up late, or not at all.
Q: But if his staff covers for him, how will the word get out?
A: The political appointees will be quiet for sure. But what about the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff? What about the senior uniformed military assistant to the secretary of defense, typically a three-star? These are the people who are with him all the time. If he starts coming up short, they will see it first. Normally, you expect a certain loyalty and discretion from your uniformed staff, but these folks have a higher duty to the country. Quite a dilemma.
But it doesn’t matter. Word will get out. Someone will phone it into a hotline of some sort. That usually kicks off an IG investigation, and that is the beginning of the end. Many people may look the other way and not rat him out, but they aren’t going to lie to an IG over it. Not worth it.
I don’t think Hegseth will last in this job more than a year.
