Burnham cemented himself as Labour’s winner

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Good morning. Will Keir Starmer announce his departure from Downing Street as soon as today? Many of his ministers think he will, in an indication of how the sheer size of Andy Burnham’s victory last week has changed Labour politics. Some thoughts on that in today’s note.

Makerfield maketh the man

Many of his ministers think Keir Starmer’s resignation could come as soon as today, but as George Parker observes in a must-read piece on what might be Starmer’s last meaningful decision in office, only the prime minister and his wife, Victoria Starmer, know his next move.

Most in the government assume that he will conclude that he can’t possibly carry on. Most of his ministers have told him he has to go. Even the ultra-loyalist Peter Kyle is giving equivocal answers about whether he can stay and many of his own aides think the game is up. In such a situation, Starmer will conclude that he cannot govern on that basis and all he can do at this point is further damage his own standing.

Ultimately trying to predict what is going on in the prime minister’s head is a fool’s errand (something I wish I had remembered before trying to do so last week). As Lucy Fisher highlighted on the Political Fix podcast, the sheer size of Andy Burnham’s victory in Makerfield has upended Labour politics and therefore British politics.

Don’t forget that about two-thirds of sitting Labour MPs were elected in 2017, 2019 and 2024 (when more than half of them were first elected). They do not know Burnham well but the size of his by-election win has created the sense in the minds of many that he is a winner. It has also increased the share of people in the cabinet who believe that Starmer’s days are numbered. Equally importantly, it makes it harder for Wes Streeting, who insists he will fight any leadership election, to get the support he needs to do so.

A coronation for Burnham looks likely — unless, that is, Keir Starmer decides to stay and fight.

Now try this

I saw Tuner at the cinema — it’s absolutely delightful and I can’t recommend it highly enough. Danny Leigh liked it too, and gave it five stars.

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