Survey Says is a weekly column rounding up three of the most important polling trends or data points you need to know about. You’ll also find data-based updates on past Daily Kos reporting, plus a vibe check on a trend that’s driving politics.
Most voters can’t stomach the reality of being anti-immigration
Data shows that Americans are swinging to the right on immigration … doesn’t it?
Fifty-three percent of registered voters in December supported mass deportations of undocumented immigrants in the U.S., according to a poll from Civiqs. Furthermore, in July 2024, Gallup released data showing that 55% of Americans wanted to decrease immigration to their country—an abrupt change from just three years earlier, when more people wanted to increase immigration than decrease it. And that swing looks very dramatic in a chart:
But new polling from Data for Progress suggests that while Americans may want less immigration in a broad sense, they don’t have the stomach for the reality of the right’s anti-immigration platform.
President Donald Trump rescinded guidance banning immigration arrests in places like churches and schools, but when faced with that scenario, voters recoil. A majority of likely voters does not want U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to arrest people at funerals, weddings, public religious ceremonies, in places of worship, at schools, or anywhere children gather, like at playgrounds. Only 39% of likely voters support ICE arrests at domestic violence shelters and food pantries. Only 37% support arrests at hospitals.
And the more specific Data for Progress got, the more voters shrank away from a hard-line anti-immigration viewpoint. Only 32% of likely voters support allowing ICE to arrest “a father … at his child’s school play.” Only 27% support arresting “a woman” waiting at a hospital for emergency care.
Beyond arrests, and in another break with Trumpeven fewer voters want to turn away asylum-seekers once they hear their stories. Only 25% of likely voters don’t want to allow into the country “a young woman fleeing political persecution in Belarus for participating in pro-democracy protests.” And only 20% don’t want to admit “a 13-year-old boy and his family fleeing war in Syria after their home was destroyed and they fear for their lives.” Sixty percent of likely voters would let that family in.
So what does this mean?
In June 2021, when Gallup last found Americans more supportive of increasing immigration than decreasing it, the country was coming out of the first Trump presidency. Americans had been forced to witness his vicious family-separation policy and his antagonism of DREAMersor people who were brought to the country illegally as children and received protection from being deported. People saw this ugliness, and they rejected it.
This time around, images and personal stories of Trump’s mass deportations will no doubt lead some Americans to second-guess their hard-heartedness. The more the public has to face this ugliness, the more likely their opinion drifts back to the left.
The real question is, how many lives must be ruined before that happens?
Polarization goes global
On a lighter note: Israel.
That nation is the most politically polarizing of the 22 that Gallup included in a new study. Just 33% of Democrats have a very or mostly favorable opinion of the country, while 83% of Republicans do—a 50-percentage-point partisan gap. Gallup’s study comes amid a ceasefire in the region, following a war that left more than 46,000 Palestinians deadaccording to Gaza’s Health Ministry.
Also atop the chart are Mexico, Ukraine, Cuba, and the Palestinian territories (the Gaza Strip and West Bank), which have between 36- and 27-point partisan gaps. Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to feel favorable to all four locations.
Much of this has an obvious partisan bent. Democrats have a more positive view of Mexico and Ukraine—83% and 84% favorable, respectively—while Republicans, fueled by a pro-Russian sentiment among GOP lawmakers and by general xenophobia, are much more negative on both. Among Republicans, 54% have a favorable view of Ukraine and 47% have one of Mexico.
Just as notable is where party members mostly agree. There is a partisan divide of less than 10 points regarding North Korea, Great Britain, Canada, Iraq, Japan, Denmark, Afghanistan, Iran (!), China (!!), and Egypt, which is seen favorably by 61% of Democrats and 64% of Republicans—an insignificant 3-point gap.
It’s probably because of the pyramids. Everyone loves the pyramids.
Old people to old politicians: Leave office
Congress got slightly younger this yearwith the median age dropping to 57.5 years old in the House and to 64.7 years old in the Senate—both by about half a year compared to the previous session. However, each chamber has its share of lawmakers born before World War II who might not be the best suited to, say, tackle regulating artificial intelligence. Or even the internet.
So it makes sense that older Americans are widely supportive of older lawmakers stepping down to make room for younger politicians, according to new polling from YouGov. What’s surprising, though, is that older Americans are the most supportive of passing the torch.
Sixty-three percent of Americans ages 65 and older want older politicians to retire so younger ones can fill their seats—five percentage points higher than the other three age groups, which each clock in at 58% support.
Even more surprising? Americans ages 65 and older are also the most supportive of implementing maximum age limits on serving in office, according to YouGov. Sixty-eight percent support such an age limit.
Americans ages 45 to 64 are also at 68% support, and while younger Americans—those 44 and under—are only a point or two lower in support, that’s roughly the margin of error on the poll, meaning the difference isn’t that significant.
Still, taken together, older Americans seem to know enough to know Congress needs fresh blood.
Somebody tell Sen. Chuck Grassley of Iowa. If he runs again in 2028 and wins, he will be over 100 at the end of his next term.
Any updates?
Trump’s absurd threats to take over Canada have provoked our famously nice northern neighbors into booing the U.S. national anthem at sporting events. Whether or not many Americans are aware of that, they very much don’t support booing national anthems, according to a new poll from YouGov: 72% find the act unacceptable, while only 14% think it’s acceptable.
Trump is loudly proclaiming himself “KING,” but Americans are just as loudly saying, “NO THANKS.” In fact, 84% don’t want him to be king of the U.S., according to YouGov. That includes 80% of Trump 2024 voters. Bipartisanship!
Though the membership of a Christian nationalist movement is incredibly overblown, as Daily Kos has coveredthe share of U.S. adults that is Christian has hovered around 63% since 2019, according to a new study from Pew Research Center. This comes after a long period of decline. In 2007, 78% of adults identified as Christian.
Despite high-profile plane crashes, the number of airplane accidents is actually down from this time last year. However, 72% of likely voters think crashes have become more frequent, according to Data for Progress. Only 5% think crashes have become less frequent.
Vibe check
Forty-six percent of registered voters support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants, according to Civiqs. That ties the share that wants to deport those immigrants. Between December 2016 and December 2020, support for a pathway fluctuated between 54% and 58%.
But a lot of that decline is likely explained by the theory of thermostatic public opinionor the idea that public opinion tends to move in the opposite direction of government action.
For example, voters back Republicans in one election, then realize they don’t like everything Republicans are doing, so they vote for Democrats in the next election, then find they don’t like everything Democrats are doing, so they vote for Republicans the next time. It’s part of why the sitting president’s party almost always loses in the midterms. It’s a loop of dissatisfaction.
After all, support for a pathway to citizenship started declining in December 2020, right after Joe Biden won the presidency.
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