After meeting European Union foreign ministers this week, Volodymyr Zelenskyy voiced exasperation over the continued blocking of a €90bn EU loan to Kyiv by Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orbán. US financial support for Ukraine has dried up under Donald Trump, so the money is desperately required. But as Mr Zelenskyy bitterly observed, it is being delayed “because one person in Europe is standing against all of Europe simply to please Moscow”.
Trailing in the polls ahead of an election on 12 April, Mr Orbán is doubling down on attempts to mobilise his nationalist base by fuelling anti-Ukraine and anti-EU sentiment. Allegations also continue to emerge, dismissed by Hungary’s foreign minister, Péter Szijjártó, that he has in effect colluded with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Lavrov, to undermine European decision-making during the war.
A proper reckoning with Budapest will be overdue following the election, should Mr Orbán win a fifth term in office. It is made all the more urgent by Mr Trump’s war of choice in the Middle East. As Washington’s erratic focus shifts around the globe, taking the world’s attention with it, Ukraine has become more vulnerable and more reliant than ever on steadfast European support.
Higher oil prices as a result of the closing of the strait of Hormuz, and Mr Trump’s related decision to lift restrictions on Russian oil, have boosted Vladimir Putin’s war economy. Stocks of US Patriot missile interceptors, crucial to Ukraine’s defence, are dwindling rapidly as Gulf states use them to fend off Iranian attacks. The US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, has made it clear that White House military priorities in the Gulf will take precedence over Kyiv’s needs.
Meanwhile, peace negotiations with Moscow have paused and a distracted Mr Trump has reverted to bullying type, commenting in one interview: “Zelenskyy has to get on the ball, and he has to get a deal done … you don’t have the cards. Now he’s got even less cards.” Ukraine’s president has stated that future US security guarantees are being linked to the surrender of unoccupied territory in the Donbas. Given the White House’s previous backing for that key Kremlin demand, Mr Rubio’s subsequent denial of the claim is deeply unconvincing.
As the war on Iran changes strategic calculations around the world, Mr Zelenskyy has done his best to forge new alliances by exporting defensive technologies to Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Strikes on Russian oil ports have also been successful, undermining Mr Putin’s ability to fully cash in on exports. But events in the Middle East have primarily confirmed what Brussels and Kyiv already knew, given Mr Trump’s track record: in a menacing new era of global instability, Ukraine’s fate is inextricably linked to Europe’s ability to project and robustly defend its geopolitical interests.
In the short term that will involve finding a way to release the crucial financial support agreed upon in December, and still not delivered as a result of Mr Orbán’s opposition. Beyond that, whether or not Hungary’s prime minister is re-elected, Europe needs to develop stronger mechanisms to put a stop to the kind of blocking tactics he has deployed for years. As the transatlantic alliance becomes more a memory than a current reality, the EU cannot afford to be stymied by rogue actors who hold its essential values in contempt.
Source:
www.theguardian.com
